Indonesia plans to execute B40 in January
Because case, prices might rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says
B40 will need additional 3 mln lots feedstock, GAPKI says
Malaysia palm oil standard at highest because mid-2022
India may withdraw import tax trek in the middle of inflation, Mistry says
(Adds expert remarks, updates Malaysia's palm oil standard price)
By Bernadette Christina
NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is anticipated to recuperate in 2025 after an expected drop this year, however rates are anticipated to remain elevated due to organized growth of the country's biodiesel mandate, industry analysts said.
The palm oil standard price in Malaysia has actually risen more than 35% this year, lifted by slow output and Indonesia's strategy to increase the necessary domestic biodiesel blend to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to reduce fuel imports.
Palm oil output next year in top manufacturer Indonesia is expected to recuperate by 1.5 million metric heaps compared with a projected drop of simply over a million tons this year, Julian McGill, managing director at Glenauk Economics, told the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.
Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research firm Oil World, said he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million tons next year after a 2.5 million heap drop in 2024.
While Indonesia's output is forecast to enhance, supply from somewhere else and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening.
Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is expected to dip somewhat next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million heaps in 2024.
"We would need a healing in palm in 2025 since combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are decreasing," Mielke said.
'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE
The rate rise in palm oil in the past seven weeks has been "frightening" for purchasers, Mielke stated, adding that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia enforces the so-called B40 policy.
The Indonesia Palm Oil Association stated extra feedstock of around 3 million loads will be needed for B40 implementation, deteriorating export supply.
The existing palm oil premium has actually currently triggered palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke included.
palm oil prices are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric load in 2025, McGill of Glenauk estimated.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest given that mid-2022.
"Sentiment today is red-hot and incredibly bullish, we have to take care," said Dorab Mistry, director at Indian durable goods company Godrej International.
He forecast the Malaysian cost around 5,000 ringgit and above till June 2025.
Mielke and Mistry prompted Indonesia to
think about postponing
B40 application on issue about its effect on food consumers.
Meanwhile, Mistry expected leading palm oil importer India to withdraw its
import task hike
enforced from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy
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Indonesia Palm Oil Output Seen Recovering in 2025, but Biodiesel
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